COP28 Key Takeaways

15 Dec

Introduction

COP28 was held from 30th November to 12th December in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE).

COP28 is the first global stocktake on climate action, the halfway point between the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015 and meeting climate goals by 2030. This year’s talks focused on assessing progress against four cross-cutting themes including people and livelihoods, energy transition, finance and trade, and inclusivity.

Even before talks began, much discussion focused on the host country - one of the world’s top 10 oil producers – as well as the appointment of Sultan Al Jaber as president of the talks. As chief executive of the state-owned oil company Adnoc (which has openly stated its intention to expand fossil fuel production) Al Jaber has made no secret of his scepticism towards climate science and the need for carbon reduction, stating recently that there was “no science” indicating that a phase-out of fossil fuels was needed to restrict global heating to 1.5C. He later countered, saying he and the UAE “very much respect [climate] science”.

The conference ended with a landmark agreement from almost all parties to “transition away from fossil fuels”. Despite this achievement, issues inevitably persist. Island states have pointed to a “litany of loopholes” and scientists have expressed concern the deal will not provide sufficient support to achieve the 1.5C goal set out in the Paris Agreement.

Key takeaways

Fossil fuels

Countries agreed to “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner”, rather than a full “phase-out”. Though this is widely seen as the beginning of the end for fossil fuels, the language remains vague and unspecific, and there is still no mechanism to force countries to ditch fossil fuels in the time scientists say is necessary. The reference to transition only in relation to “energy systems” is also weaker than the previous text which referred to all systems.
The inclusion of new text on “transitional fuels” is seen as an unnecessary boost to the gas industry.
The inclusion of carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) in the list of low-emissions technologies provides concessions to allow fossil fuel producers to continue producing long after scientists say is safe. Despite years of development, CCUS is believed to make a negligible contribution to carbon reduction and remains unproven at scale.
On coal, the language in the new text has been weakened from "rapidly phasing down unabated coal" and putting "limitations on permitting" to now making "efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power."

Loss and damage fund, and climate finance

While some progress was made on committing wealthier countries to support poorer ones to tackle climate impacts via the new loss and damage fund, critics observe the level of support remains insufficient. Countries made pledges to the fund of $700 million - only 0.2% of the estimated $400 billion needed by vulnerable countries.
Progress was also made on climate finance with an agreement made to draft a post-2025 finance target ahead of COP29, to be known as the new collective quantified goal (NCQG). Details remain to be finalised.

Renewable energy

116 nations agreed to triple global renewable energy capacity and double the rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030. This will support the transition away from fossil fuels. However, with China and India not included in the deal, it lacks the power it might have had.

Carbon markets

No agreement was reached on the oversight of carbon markets nor on approaches to accountability for carbon credits, leaving the industry largely unchanged, i.e. unregulated.